The Reset Wave

ICE Mortgage Technology estimates cited by Realtor.com show roughly 150,000 first ARM resets in 2026, about 186,000 in 2027 and 155,000 in 2028 [1]. Coverage framed the shift as a payment shock for many households [2].

Illustrative Math

In one Realtor.com example, a 2019 seven-year ARM with about $548,000 unpaid resets from 3% to a 6.06% median, adding roughly $1,080 monthly [1]. A comparable 2019 fixed-rate borrower would pay less over time [1].

Not Uniform

Outcomes hinge on reset timing, remaining balance and rate caps; ICE found some 2023 three-year ARMs resetting lower, trimming payments by about $124 monthly [1]. ARM applications reportedly reached 10.3% of the total in late September [1].